Telecommunications in Africa generally are due to be revolutionised by the coming of the new submarine fibre optic cables now being laid down the east (for the first time) and west coasts, and hitting the Internet backbone in Europe and elsewhere. Access to these cables is due to bring bandwidth pricing in the countries along the routes, particularly those cities near the coast, by an order of magnitude, with access to the fibre being in some cases being in some cases as low as 2% of previous satellite costs.

So low is this cost that it will inevitably drive demand for access to these new cables, even in more remote locations and in landlocked countries, such as Zambia, and new players will enter the market. International bodies such as the World Bank are actively promoting the spread of such access, as is the EASSy project, the North-South Corridor project, and private companies and incumbent operators.
Zambia has just very recently gained access to the existing west coast Sat-3 cable to Europe via a fibre link using ZESCO to interlink with Namibia, which in turn links with the South African fibre network, reaching Cape Town. Whilst the prices of the new fibre link to London are only very little less than existing satellite connections (due to the high cost of transiting through other regional countries on route), latency will fall and new opportunities for connectivity (such as video conferencing) will emerge. A reduction in pricing is however likely in the medium term now that the SeaCom cable is live on the east coast and high-capacity on the new west African WACS cable comes on stream in a year’s time. Routes are already planned through Zimbabwe and Botswana (linking with Zamtel’s proposed fibre routes and ZESCO’s expansion, and schemes in partnership with the cellular operators) and later through Tanzania, Malawi/Mozambique and Angola.
Coupled with the deregulation of the international voice gateway it is likely that prices for both voice and Internet access will fall significantly (or more bandwidth be made available) and new markets for triple play (Internet, voice and entertainment services delivered together through the same medium) will be created, at least in the major urban areas of Lusaka and the Copperbelt. With the introduction of further low-cost computers, such as the current generation of netbooks, and more sophisticated converged phones, and an increasing market in mobile and nomadic Internet services (CDMA; WiMAX; 3.5G; 4G; LTE) a higher percentage of the population should find connectivity in some form.
In turn, with schools and community facilities getting connected this will see a much wider community of Internet users. eGovernment and the provision of significant local content will also drive usage.
However, whilst commercial interests might drive Internet usage to much higher levels in the more urban areas it is likely that rural connectivity will require significant incentivisation and management well into the medium term. The basic infrastructure will be in place (through international fibre, and in-country microwave and fibre) to get to District level where meshing into deeper rural areas can take place. Each rural centre then needs the following facilities and inputs:

• Internet cafe/telecentre
• WiMAX service covering the District capital (radius 30km+)
• Onward WiFi / backhauls to remoter villages
• All government users connected
• Local web portal created for the specific community, plus access to a good Zambian gateway
• Free training in ICT skills and Internet usage, tailored for the local community
• Services of an Internet ‘evangelist’ for at least 3 months to embed Internet usage based on the needs of the community after obtaining buy-in from all necessary parties.
• Access to subsidised bandwidth costs for at least an initial 6 months, and thus low-cost services to clients whilst they learn to use and appreciate the facilities.
• Low-cost connections to local schools and health facilities, as well as the farming community.
• Removal of all levies, duties and taxes on Internet services.
• Provision of access to terrestrial backhaul infrastructure, shared towers, and removal of any licensing restrictions.
• Fully trained local staff
• Access to low-cost netbooks or other forms of low-power, easily maintained computers.
• Provision of electricity to the telecentre and connectivity providers, coupled with further investment in biofuels, solar power and alternative energy sources.

               
It is hoped that the Universal Access Fund (plus any external investment) can provide the necessary incentivisation to allow this roll-out to all 72 District capitals within the next 18 months, to be followed by the extension to deeper rural areas. There is plenty of local capacity and willingness in country once the appropriate funding is in place.
Likewise deeper penetration of GSM coverage will follow from UAF incentivisation.